Bitcoin is in danger of falling much lower, possibly to a new bear market low after failing to break key resistance.
Bitcoin has hit resistance at its 200-day moving average and is showing signs of a trend reversal, according to CryptoQuant on Wednesday. The move closely mirrors a March 2022 pattern where a 43% rally stalled at the same level before prices declined further.
“Overall, Bitcoin demand has flipped into contraction,” the analyst wrote.
The platform’s “Bull Score Index” has declined from 40 back to extreme bearish territory at 20, “as stalling stablecoin liquidity, and negative price momentum simultaneously eroded the composite signal.”
This score is consistent with the deep bear market readings of February and March, when prices declined to $60,000, and historically “has preceded either further price weakness or extended consolidation,” they added.
Bitcoin Correction Likely to Continue
If the correction continues, the $70,000 level represents the primary on-chain support target, the traders’ on-chain realized price. The analysts noted that this level has functioned as a “precise inflection point” throughout the current bear market cycle.
A break below this back into the $60k zone could result in new bear market lows, however. Meanwhile, Glassnode reported on Wednesday that Bitcoin has reclaimed the True Market Mean at $78,300 but failed to sustain above it. However, it also noted that the correction from recent highs is likely to continue if previous cycle patterns repeat.
“Any deeper correction from current levels would therefore reframe the recent rally as a local top within the ongoing bear market, a structure that has recurred multiple times in prior cycles and remains the higher probability outcome until price demonstrates sustained follow-through.”
Bitcoin momentum has faded from full max momentum, reported Swissblock on Thursday. It remained cautiously bullish, stating that as long as momentum does not degrade significantly, “the base case is consolidation, not breakdown.”
Bitcoin momentum has faded from full max momentum.
But as long as it does not fall below -0.5, this does not imply breakdown.
What usually follows is consolidation.
The key reference is June–July 2025.
Momentum faded from full strength, but the indicator never broke below… https://t.co/QkVFmMTReb pic.twitter.com/ZarKY77Bx3
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) May 21, 2026
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Crypto Market Outlook
Bitcoin has climbed steadily over the past 24 hours, gaining 1.7% from $76,600 to tap $78,000 twice during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.
However, this level is also a resistance zone that needs to be overcome quickly for BTC to reach $80,000 again. Volumes and sentiment suggest it will be thwarted here again.
Ether prices have mirrored the move, but it remains bearish under $2,150 at the time of writing, while the altcoins were notching larger gains. Hyperliquid and Zcash had exploded with double-digit gains on the day.
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