Bitcoin (BTC) “cycle peak buyers” could already be pointing the way to the next bear-market bottom.
Key points:
Bitcoin hodlers who bought BTC one to two years ago are cooling selling pressure.The cohort’s realized losses have led to market bottoms once their uptrend reverses, Glassnode data shows.Speculators’ cost basis reinforces the next BTC price battleground at $69,000.
Glassnode: Bitcoin realized loss reversal “worth watching closely”
In an X post on Friday, Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics platform Glassnode, showed a classic bottom signal potentially repeating.
The latest in a series of such signals, the latest puts buyers who bought BTC in the latter part of the bull market in focus.
“One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders,” Cryptovizart wrote.
Here, coins moving onchain at a loss last did so between July 2024 and July 2025. During that time, BTC/USD increased from around $62,800 to $107,000, placing the majority of investors underwater on their allocation.
“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization,” the post continues.
“Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure.”
Bitcoin realized losses for 1-2 year hodlers (30-day moving average). Source: Cryptovizart/X
An accompanying chart shows a spike in realized losses on a 30-day rolling basis, with the tally recently passing $75 million before beginning a reversal. For Cryptovizart, that feature is key.
“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market,” they added.
“Worth watching closely.”
Focus shifts to $69,000 BTC price showdown
Hodler realized losses are not the only onchain metric on the radar when it comes to timing the next macro BTC price floor.
Related: Bitcoin gets new $80K August target: Watch these BTC price levels next
As Cointelegraph reported, stochastic relative strength index (RSI) values on two-month time frames are creating classic market reversal conditions.
In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, Glassnode flagged Bitcoin speculators’ aggregate cost basis as bulls’ next resistance hurdle.
At around $69,000, the cost basis for short-term holders (STHs) also coincides with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.
“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole,” it read.
“A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.”
BTC/USD chart with cost-basis levels (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
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